Deloitte TMT Predictions and Prognistications
In over 1,000 cities across the globe, the sight of e-bikes whizzing down the roads is a familiar one. A Statista report using data from 2016 shows that over 33 million electric bikes have been sold in China alone.
China currently represents the majority of the e-bike market, with its closest contemporary as Europe with a recorded 1.6 million sales. In Japan, the United States, and several other countries, commuters are exploring the benefits of e-bikes.
With new advances in the integration of technology into bicycle functionality, experts are predicting rapid growth in this industry. In their latest report, Deloitte TMT shares several predictions for e-bikes over the next three years (2020-2023).
Here are the possible developments in the e-bike industry to look out for.
More than 130 million e-bikes are expected to be sold between 2020 and 2023.
Electric bike makers are releasing new, innovative products consistently. There has also been a recent crop up of e-bike retailers providing both online and offline access to customers. With better market access to the product, Deloitte TMT researchers expect higher sales of e-bikes within the next three years.
We’re already seeing an increase in the sales of e-bikes around the world. Earlier this year, one of the biggest European e-bike retailers reported a 40% sales growth. They sold 290,000 units in the first six months of 2019.
In the United States, the NPD Retail Tracking Service reports that unit sales of electric bikes rose to 73%. That represents about 400,000 units sold. With the recorded growth in sales, Deloitte TMT’s prediction may fall quite close to the mark.
While biking is popular, only a small percentage of the population uses bicycles as an active form of transportation. In the US and Canada, reports show that only 1% of the workforce commute using bikes. The Deloitte report predicts that e-bikes will push that margin to 2%. A one-point increase may not seem like much, but represents billions of additional bike rides per year.
E-bikes will make a significant contribution to lower emissions.
Recently, more people are questioning the price of our daily commute on the environment. Driving is one of the biggest contributors to greenhouse gas emissions. A report by the EIA shows that burning one gallon of gasoline can release up to 20 pounds of CO2 emissions. This means that the average gas-fueled vehicle produces between 6-9 pounds of CO2 every year.
Thanks to technological innovation, bike rides are becoming safer, faster, and more affordable. Deloitte believes that these changes will help commuters make a switch to e-bikes, especially for shorter journeys.
With an estimate of additional tens of billions of bike rides, this report predicts that e-bikes will make a significant contribution to the global cause for lower emissions.
Tens of billions of additional bike rides by 2022
E-bikes are becoming increasingly popular for first-mile, last-mile, and overall travel. As more people are introduced to advanced biking systems, Deloitte predicts rapid growth in the number of e-bikes on the road. To be more specific, they expect to record additional tens of billions of bike rides by 2022.
The e-bike industry is expected to generate $20 billion in revenue by 2023
Not only are e-bikes in high demand, but they are also becoming cheaper to manufacture. Both affordable and high-end models are receiving a surge in interest from the market. End users and e-bike services companies are buying more and more of these products.
The Deloitte report estimates that about 130 million e-bikes will be sold between 2020 and 2023, generating about $20 million in revenue. However, e-bikes using different technologies are expected to bring in different percentages of these estimated sales.
Two-fifth of all e-bikes sold globally between 2020 and 2023 are expected to feature LIB
Before 2016, about 80% of the electric bikes sold were fitted with heavy lead batteries. However, recent improvements in lithium-ion batteries (LIB) are shifting the market. LIBs are lightweight, discharge at a more manageable rate, and contain lower levels of toxic chemicals than other batteries such as the heavy lead option.
With these improvements, the Deloitte report predicts that two-fifth of the e-bikes sold between 2020 and 2023 will feature LIBs. It also predicts that the proportion of LIB-powered e-bikes starting at about 25% in 2020 will rise to more than 60% in 2023.
By 2023, the number of e-bikes in circulation should be about 300 million, a 50% increase from 2019’s 200 million
According to the Deloitte report, the total number of e-bikes owned by both individuals and organizations should reach about 300 million by 2023. The report also notes that “the number of e-bikes on the roads will easily outpace other e-vehicles by the end of next year”. Simply put, they expect e-bikes to outsell electric cars.
This prediction is supported by research data which shows that 28% of e-bike buyers bought the e-bike as a substitute for a car. More and more commuters may choose e-bikes over cars, both electric and otherwise.
Electrified bike-sharing programs, docked as well as dockless, are likely to proliferate in 2020 and beyond
Bike-sharing services are providing commuters with access to e-bikes at their point of demand. So far, there are over 1,000 cities around the world with docked and dockless bike sharing programs. This represents tens of millions of shareable bikes. The Deloitte report expects these platforms to acquire more electric bikes, rental locations, and a healthy dose of competition.
All the Deloitte TMT predictions for the e-bike industry from 2020-2023 point to one expectation: rapid growth. Bicycles will still make up only a small fraction of transportation, but the changes will be evident. As the industry grows, it is expected that departments of transportation and urban planning divisions will start to take note, and make improvements for bicycle infrastructure.
Interested in the full report? Download it here: Technology, Media, and Telecommunications Predictions 2020 – Deloitte.